Go now Brown cow ?

The usual theatrics from Gordon Brown on foot and mouth ( just who is the DEFRA minister these days anyway ? Seems there's good publicity to be had for Gordon for this one, so unlike Northern Rock he isn't hiding ).

The committee meeting ( how they must love the title COBRA - rather reminds you of a iffy Sylvester Stallone movie - tough anyway ) is to discover why the great clunking fist, after underfunding government labs with lethal viruses, hasn't prevailed over Foot and Mouth.

The real risk Gordon is worried about isn't to farmers ( who he'll assume are Tory voting and deserve to go out of business ), but to his desperate need to have a smash and grab election before the bad economic front closes in.

What are the risks of a national outbreak, during an election. Would such an election have to be postponed like last time ?

Gordon has to know .... after all this is important to him ...

Update Monday: Benedict Brogan suspects the media are being played on this and that Brown won't go.
My father in law agrees - based on his diet of Scottish newspapers in which all that shines isn't Brown.
Tony Sharp is intrigued and points to analysis at UK Polling report that suggests things may not be as much in Labour favour as we have been assuming.

Still Foot and Mouth transmittion by Deer is not ruled out !

If you listen to the reports on the radio and the press, the argument about transmission always centres on soil and traffic. And yet Deer are a viable vector and they are present all around the areas of the outbreaks.

I have no inside knowledge of whether this is the case, but I find the focus of the 'experts' on what they know about, rather than other possibilities very worrying.

I wonder if Deer get mentioned to the PM at his COBRA PR meetings ?

Why is it being ignored ? Perhaps because the implications are inconvenient and show up a level of incompetence in government. The timing may also be politically be inconvenient. After all who can call for a general election during a foot and mouth outbreak and a banking crisis ?

Questions questions ..

Update: The BBC's current summary ( always open to revision ) doesn't mention wild life or deer. I don't understand why not - if only to discount the idea. For some unexplained reason this idea is beyond the pale for the BBC and the government. (Which is of course what makes it so interesting ;-) ).

Update: I note from the press that some of the Foot and Mouth lessons found on the some of the animals of the second outbreak looked old. Possibly there for this is a continuation for the first outbreak which was never detected. Lets hope so as it provides a reason why the outbreak will be successfully contained.

Foor *in* mouth desease - government for the media headlines

The BBC is reporting a new case of suspected foot and mouth 30 15 10 miles* from the other outbreak. Other sources are mentioning Egham as the location of the suspected outbreak.

They are quick to report that a COBRA meeting is to be called by Gordon Brown. COBRA is now being used for political spin and cover. Its like the continual review that Labour is still producing 10 years into office. Pretending to do something whilst actually just muddling about.

The potential source of the virus leaking from a pipe has been identified, but the vector by which it got to the farms was *only* speculation.

Man in a Shed and a few others have raised the question about the wild deer that populate this part of Surrey. Clearly if they were the vector then it would be very bad politically for Gordon Brown - whom wanted to keep the option of a general election open for his own personal political games he plays, rather than doing his job running the country.

There are more questions to be asked now ... and perhaps we could have less of the theatrics from No10 and some competent government instead. ( But I'm not holding my breath. ).

Update: Note how close Windsor park appears to be ...

It is being reported that the foot and mouth incubation period is a maximum of 21 days - meaning there were other animals with the disease (deer ?) or its a fresh outbreak.

* Egham keeps getting nearer to Pirbright in the BBC reports. First it was 30 miles (initial web version), then 15 at lunch time on the World at One, PM used the word "close" and the 6 O'Clock news used 10 miles. Something odd going on there I think ... Google maps put them 11.7 miles apart ( maybe US miles - are they the same ?)

BBC radio news has mentioned the possibility of wild life for the first time, but prefers the theory of cars from the site spreading the disease.

As I mentioned earlier you have to wonder if the BBC and their masters don't prefer the human caused explanation as it suggests things will be easier to fix. ( Especially given Gordon Brown's political needs ).

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By the way why would anyone think that below surface ceramic pipes would contain a virus effectively enough. They will *always* leak to some extent. These pipes should be stainless steel, above ground, with a controlled atmosphere.

Update: The Warmwell site is again a good place to catch up on current news and thinking on this outbreak - head over here (recommended )...

Of particular interest is its covering of the possibility that Deer may be the vector. See this letter from a farmer and virologist Ruth Watkins here.

So what about the wild Deer in Surrey and Foot and Mouth ?

I was just heading of to bed when something that had been nagging at me suddenly made sense. I've been over to Bisley today (nearby Pirbright) and there are notices asking people to keep their dogs on leads due to the current emergency - ie foot and mouth.

Now there are wild deer in these areas. Some used to drink from a pond of and old friend on the outskirts of Woking and the whole area is wooded, with Army training grounds and ranges near by.

What if a deer was case zero of this outbreak drinking from local flood water and then walking up stream ? The implications are that stopping the movement of cattle may not stop the spread of Foot and Mouth.

Iain Dale was onto this four days ago here also ( found whilst researching this post ).

Take a look at this here ... Defra are certainly considering Deer from one perspective...

Also the following from the Warmwell site quoted here:

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August 7 2007 ~ "Who would notice the infection in deer? Does DEFRA have a plan?"

An emailer asks some urgent questions about the effect of flooding at the Pirbright site and the likelihood that wild deer will indeed have been exposed to infection. (see also below) He asks what clearly identifiable symptoms they have - or do they, like sheep in 2001, fight off the disease without anyone noticing?
(We understand that clinical disease is mild or unapparent in the red and fallow deer but more severe in the roe deer. The appearance and distribution of the lesions are similar to those in sheep - but see the paper cited below)
"Who does DEFRA expect to inspect wild deer and report symptoms and to whom? What is their plan for containing the spread of FMD in deer?" Like many others, he expresses a wish for far more information to come from DEFRA. Many smaller farmers are starved of news and feel unrepresented - and are anyway are doing vital work on the farm and are far too busy taking advantage of the weather to be glued to the internet (if they even have it).

In fact the more I read of the Warmwell site the more I think it deserves careful attention on this outbreak.

The following quote appears on the about part of the site:

"This website has served as a rapier, puncturing the bladder of Government obfuscation, by publishing a highly informed, topical digest of news..." Country Life editorial


A happy hunting ground for bloggers and the like on this issue perhaps.

Update:

The Guardian online has an ongoing blog on the news as it comes in here (this blog gets a mention)

Humfrey Malins shows the way

Here is my local MP - outside the Pirbright laboratories (where the Foot and Mouth virus is now assumed to have come from) being interviewed again about the latest developments ( I saw him there a day or two ago ).

This is the type of leadership that the party needs. On time, on site, on TV and in with our message.

Sir Humfrey is a thoughtful MP who considers his words carefully. To see more of him have a look at this excellent interview on 18 Doughty Street here ...

Humfrey Malins MP - Drugs Policy (21/03/2007)
Iain Dale presents Live at Nine. Guest is Conservative MP Humfrey Malins MP who talks about his work towards preventing youngsters becoming involved in drugs

Running time: 00:53:59
Director: Doughty Street

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PS Humfrey's jacket is showing the start of a heavy rain storm thats just gone over .. its not a Blair Sure moment ... ;-)