Monday, January 31, 2011

A wider regional middle east war could be very close

Things are getting very very dangerous. As the BBC cheers on the protesters there will be those in Israel doing the maths on what a government containing a significant Muslim Brotherhood element will mean for Israel.

Unless they are terminally naive, and I think we can assume they aren't, they must look on this as potentially being required to fight on 4-5 fronts (vs Hamas, Hezbollah/Lebanon, Syria, Iran & Egypt) in a war for survival at a time of their enemies choosing. With the thousan
ds of terror missiles the world has allowed Hezbollah to install and who knows what's been smuggled into Gaza Israel could be under bombardment across its entire territory at the same time as it needs maximum logistically flexibility.

In short this is a condition any military advisor may reach the conclusion that the situation is untenable, leaving pre-emption as the only option. ( A logic easily followed by the military establishments of the established states who would be on a hair trigger to respond or even get their retaliation in first ).

This is horribly horribly unstable.

Not you don't need an opinion on the Palestinian / Israeli dispute to reach these conclusions.

So as everyone cheers on regime change in Egypt remember the year may end in at best a very nervous nuclear armed Mexican hair triggered stand off.

I imagine the CIA is busy trying to prevent this by controlling the succession or preventing a revolution .. unless Obama has stopped them.

See also: From Wikipedia a map of who's been at war with Israel in the past 70 years ( dark green means has been at war - the other light green countries are predominately Arab countries . )

For an Israeli view of the potential in events see here ...


James Higham said...

No one will have a bar of religious talk but what is occurring, on many fronts, is "not inconsistent" with both globalist utterances and with scriptural eschatology.

Anonymous said...

I was in Iran at the time of the revolution in 78/79 and was eventually evacuated just two days before it all fell apart. This reminds me so much of that time, a genuine grass roots revolution, students, middle class with a desire for freedom. It was built around khomeni as the mosques were where political dissent could take place. apart from a minority of fanatics they all expected some sort of democracy with Khomeni as a benign religious figure who would usher in a more devout and less Western democratic regime. Very much what Germany once thought about Hitler, make use of his populist appeal, unfortunately with a similar result. So many of these young people who had such high hopes ended up in prison or dead. I loved Iran and it's people and hated leaving and I still think it was better under the Shah for all his faults and hope someday Iran will become the country they hoped for.