A wider regional middle east war could be very close

Things are getting very very dangerous. As the BBC cheers on the protesters there will be those in Israel doing the maths on what a government containing a significant Muslim Brotherhood element will mean for Israel.

Unless they are terminally naive, and I think we can assume they aren't, they must look on this as potentially being required to fight on 4-5 fronts (vs Hamas, Hezbollah/Lebanon, Syria, Iran & Egypt) in a war for survival at a time of their enemies choosing. With the thousan

ds of terror missiles the world has allowed Hezbollah to install and who knows what's been smuggled into Gaza Israel could be under bombardment across its entire territory at the same time as it needs maximum logistically flexibility.

In short this is a condition any military advisor may reach the conclusion that the situation is untenable, leaving pre-emption as the only option. ( A logic easily followed by the military establishments of the established states who would be on a hair trigger to respond or even get their retaliation in first ).

This is horribly horribly unstable.

Not you don't need an opinion on the Palestinian / Israeli dispute to reach these conclusions.

So as everyone cheers on regime change in Egypt remember the year may end in at best a very nervous nuclear armed Mexican hair triggered stand off.

I imagine the CIA is busy trying to prevent this by controlling the succession or preventing a revolution .. unless Obama has stopped them.

See also: From Wikipedia a map of who's been at war with Israel in the past 70 years ( dark green means has been at war - the other light green countries are predominately Arab countries . )

For an Israeli view of the potential in events see here ...

Now what, or who, could a fleet of Tornado bombers do that Harriers couldn't ?

Its perhaps worth wondering what changed the govt's mind, allegedly, late in the defence review. ( And perhaps who changed it - my guess the US ).

The Tornado GR4 is a strike weapon for serious inter state warfare ( yes you can deliver high explosives on the Hindu Kush - but so can DHL ), against a serious air defence system and air force you'll want something other than a mach 0.85 one engined Harrier.

Assuming we haven't lost leave of our senses and planning a suicidal war against Russia ( or even worse China ) - who else is left on the target list over the next few years ?

Lebanon war second half starting now - soon to widden to war with Iran and Syria

Its hard not to come to that conclusion.

Iran has been systematically trying to encircle Israel making alliance with the Sunni Hamas in Gaza and the Shia Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Now all that Muslim unity stuff is being shown to be just the lies you would expect. Hezbollah is making its bid to subjugate Lebanon to the will of Iran and the Shia sect of Islam - you just know that has to suck.

Of course Israel won't be able to stand for this - as Iran's leadership fully understand.

So its time for the second half of the Lebanon war that the international community was so keen to stop before Israel destroyed Hezbollah.

At the same time our politicians know that Iran is probably butchering British service personnel with their bombs in Afghanistan, Iraq and Katyusha rockets in Basra - both techniques hallmarks of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. But I guess Gordon Brown has his own career to worry about and doesn't have much time for dealing with our enemies as long as they don't kill our young men and women too quickly for the voters to notice.

The Americans are running out of patience - as Hillary Clinton's warnings a few weeks ago show. The Iranians are run by a group who are looking forward to the apocalypse.

Unless they change track they will soon get their wish. But what is truly evil is that this game is just being played by a few middle aged leaders in Iran who are condemning a bright, well educated and highly civilised population to a dreadful fate.

Update Robert Fox takes a similar view over at the First Post. His comments on Hezbollah being able to take on the UN should give the French something to think about.

Israel is now warning Iran is behind all this. So were back to the streets of Sarajevo again - waiting for the spark.