Monday, June 08, 2009

Thoughts on the Euro Election results

Just a few thoughts on the Euro elections in the UK.

Conservative: A solid result in circumstances that could have tested and even reversed David Cameron's momentum with Lord Tebbit's call for protest votes. This is to a large extent by David Cameron's quick, but well thought through leadership. He acted first, he acted correctly. This is a good sign for Mr Cameron as a future PM.

UKIP: It was UKIP's night. They have achieved a remarkable result - which if it wasn't for the Greek tragedy going on in Labour and the BNP sneaking in would have been the main headlines. But this is their high water mark. They must make far better use of their Euro MEPs this time round. They must also accept that the main beneficiaries of their activities in a general election will be the uber-Federalist Lib Dems. ( Vote UKIP - get Lib Dem ).

Lib Dems: Ouch. Those results will really hurt, and delivered from their beloved PR system as well as the FPP council elections. They're only relief is that nobody has really noticed. Yes the Lib Dem vote is only slightly down, but its shifted. Shifted away from being competitive with the Conservatives to being anti-Labour. Unfortunately for the opportunist party this isn't where the opportunities lie. They must now brace themselves to lose many of their MPs to Conservatives, whilst picking up a few ones from Labour.

Labour: If they don't force Brown out today then they have everything they so richly deserve coming straight to them. They are going to be desperate. Expect lots of initiatives which are all about getting more votes for Labour ( PR, AV votes, Postal votes etc ) as unemployable Labour MPs discover that their salaries really are way over the top for people of so little talent in the outside world - once cut off from government influence.

Greens: The new home of anti_labour protest, which is going to be a real problem for the yellow party.

BNP: No real improvement in their vote ( though as a percentage its up ). They have their opportunity for more publicity, but are likely to have a number of their favourite foxes shot by the major parties over the next few years. ( For example Labour won't try to smear the Conservatives on immigration at the next election. ) My personal feeling is that they are a very nasty party, but who have an argument of sorts to put forward that represents very genuine concerns of many people that the political establishment has refused to listen to. I suspect this will change and the BNp will decline.

SNP: Another top party in Scotland moment for the SNP. They will more than fancy their chances against a UK Conservative govt. They are on track to achieve their ultimate aim of separation and so far none of the UK wide parties have an answer to them. ( Whilst Labour and Conservative policies are essentially sacrificing the English to help bribe the Scots I don't think this can change. )

Eng Dem: Patchy performance. Devolution is off the front burner. They will have to bide their time and make sure they don't succumb to getting a bad reputation from less reputable people joining their ranks. (Update: The BBC reports their vote has doubled and ios steadily increasing, so this assesment may be unfair ).

I also think it was a bad night for PR. People don't understand how the Labour vote can drop like it did and they still pick up MEPs. I also think the BNP breakthrough is going to be one of the main arguments used against PR in all its forms. PR is not necessarily Labour's get out of Jail Free card. It will encourage the BNP greatly, and help defuse the Conservatives UKIP problem is the south.

OK these are just pre-lunch ramblings - anyone got anything to add / disagree with ? Might add something to all this later ( unless Brown gets thrown out in which case this blog will switch to "Hey Hoe the Witch is Dead" mode ).

1 comment:

Sepoy Agent said...

I agree about the public's view of last night's PR results. Even when you know what the system is all about, as most of the readers of your blog will, It does strike you as crazy when the returning officer announces, say, 400,000 votes for Cons, 300,000 for UKIP, 200,000 for Labour, and the next thing is some red-rosetted monkey is declared an MEP and mounts the stage with uplifted fist, to cheers from Labour supporters. Yes, it is crazy.