The end of the British Nuclear industry ?

As the French state, through EDF, moves into the position for the strategic subjugation of its only Nuclear rival in Europe Gordon Brown's brother will be happy that his company, EDF, is about to snuff out the independent British Nuclear power generation capability with the purchase of British Energy.

I wonder whats in it for the French tax payers ?

Brown's oil

The oil price has hit $135/bbl. My car cost me £65 !!!! to fill this morning. There is most certainly going to be trouble, some of it obvious and other less so.

Gordon Brown, in his new listening to voters mode, has managed to resit saying he wakes up every morning thinking about the oil price, but he has broadcast some equally lame statements today.

Namely:

The OPEC cartel in a scandal.
He is taking action by raising it at the G8/EU.
He will ask the Saudi's to up production.

I note that he doesn't blame speculators. Given that oil has to be used and can to some degree be substituted for in some applications a long run on oil speculation without basis for that concern seems unlikely to me.

The Americans have been over to beg the Saudi's to up production - they haven't done so.

The following problems exits:

1. Everyone looks like they are operating at peak capacity for their given infrastructure.
2. The ability to supply new infrastructure is limited by the availability of the required skills.
3. Nigeria is still a basket case.
4. Nationalism in South American and Russia is actually casuing oil production to drop and inefficient state monopolies have taken over from the independents.
5. Maybe, just maybe, the Saudi can't increase production for much or any length of time.

5 - is the most important. The Saudi's don't publish their reserve estimates or associate geological information, but some people have speculated from information that is avialable that the Saudi oil production is at capacity and will soon decline. ( See Twilight in the Desert if your interested. )

Here as list of what this means:

A) The Saudi's are in big trouble - even at today's oil prices much of their money goes to supporting the unproductive but reproducing fast section of their population. This could lead to the collaspe of their society and revolution (most likely Islamic) and a blocking of their remaining oil production capability. ( Something the US would not stand for and would almost certainly seize the oil fields near Kuwait - see staying in Iraq isn't so dumb after all ... )
B) The economy is going to have a heart attack - Labour are doomed in the UK.
C) The Economic case for Scottish independence is going to look great on tha back of current oil prices and North Sea oil - Labour are doomed in Scotland.
D) We are going to have to compete with India and China, not just for jobs, but for food, oil and raw materials. Since they make things people want and we generally struggle to do so this look =s bad and will lead to a realignment of wealth. (A large amount of this may already have happened - just who do you think sits at the other end of all our national debt, mortgages etc etc).
E) Thanks to the Blair/Brown years of spin and abdication of responsibility our electricity generation network will not be able to supply the required power shortly. Nuclear can't be built fast enough ( too few resources / skills / competition for the first two from everyone else ). The lights are going out in a few years time - David Cameron take note - this will happen on your watch !

The way out of this is to change the terms of the trade. This means different energy sources ( i.e. Nuclear - lots of Nuclear in the long term ), coal ( yes coal ), even solar and wind. [ Nobody would touch British Energy with a barge poll two years ago - now there's a bidding war ! ] But its almost too late to start - Blair and Brown should have done this years ago.

We will also need to deal with the global shock waves of initial prosperous Arab societies that then collapse, India and China running against their limits and Africa being left behind again.

Or, the oil price could just come down the the $70/bbl that our Labour government predicts for 2020....

[Bit of a rant - but there you go.. ]

Nuclear TINA

Nuclear power - there is no alternative for the UK but to build Nuclear, and build it as quickly as can responsibly be achieved.

Labour have delayed the decision by ten years. It may already be to late to avoid Brown outs like California had a few years ago. We will almost certainly have to run existing Nuclear power stations beyond their design lives (which is less safe, less efficient and less reliable) due to the short termism and frankly careerism of the current Labour government.

Gordon Brown may want to get this started now - and its better than never - but it is already too late.

David Cameron must take careful advice on this. Remember the brown outs and black outs will be in 5-10 years time when he is likely to be prime minister. If he hasn't supported the building of power capacity then he will get the blame for Labours failure. Ignore Zac Goldsmith!

( See also my past post on Greens and Nuclear ).

With Nuclear power the lights will stay on - with the Greens we will live in Darkness

Lets stop kidding ourselves. Either we build nuclear power stations and have an independent power supply or we have a choice of living in teepees with Zac Goldsmith ( what's the betting that the old Etonians will have the best teepees ?) or being part of either the Russian Mafia / Islamo Fascist Caliphate.

If you believe the guff about energy efficiency then you probably also think that government can make large efficiency savings to pay for all the promises they make at election time.

Its time to grow up. We can go with the Luddite Green medievalists and their sinister green Trotskyite co-travellers, or we can take our responsibilities seriously.

It is almost too late anyway - and that is mostly Labour's fault.

I know there are arguments about cost etc made, but other power sources don't pay the full costs of their activities either. Gas in the future will require a large military infrastructure to secure supplies and lots of expensive appeasement to gain the privilege of being sold to. In essence the government sets the rules in such a way as to determine the outcome anyway - all the rest is window dressing/spin.

Britain has already run down its capability in the design and construction of nuclear power. My guess is that those who know what they are doing are closing in on retirement. We would need a US company to build them for us now anyway. We produce our own fuel, and that capability will stop without customers - as will our capability to be an independent nuclear power. ( Does anyone want to hand our seat on the UN security council over to Iran ? Because they'll have the ability to claim it just at the time we announce to the world we are too wimpy for the job.)

PS BP announcement to scrap such a bid for the Peterhead CO2 recovery project ( I think they were going to do something smart with Hydrogen also ) is just another example of this Labour government dithering. They always set long term target - way in the future for everything, but refuse to make the tough decisions now that would allow those targets to be met.

PPS I leave the man made global warming argument out - as I suspect we are being misled on that front anyway. The argument for Nuclear power makes sense without it.

Update:

See also the leader in today's Daily Telegraph here.