Saturday, September 12, 2015

If Corbyn wins then politics will change

Since its been summer I've been keeping away from much of the news, so have only heard second hand accounts of Jeremy Corbyn.

Many of those are dire predictions of this  or that ( resignations, coups, years in the wilderness etc). Almost all of them, I would venture, will be wrong.

Since the Conservative party abandoned defending principle under Cameron, it has also given up educating the electorate. This has left a window of opportunity for the left to propose a radical agenda and be able to rely on the electorate nativity and ignorance to give it a chance. The left were clearly inspired by Syriaza in Greece - though as with all left wing projects the outcome has not been good for the people.

So here are my predictions:

1) Corbyn will shore up Labour's hemorrhaging of support to UKIP ( unless he does so really stupid things with his friends in the IRA, HAMAS, ISIL etc that call into question his patriotism ). The working class's beef has been with career politicians and New Labour types.
2) The EU referendum is now wide open - whilst the establishment will try to tie Labour into the UK surrender part group - Corbyn may allow a free vote or even commit against the EU.
3) The US will be alarmed - very alarmed ( or at least those not working for the direct political team of the current administration will be - as lets face it they are working against the US also ).
4) The Lib Dems have their life raft - if their poll numbers pick up they could get some defections from Labour.
5) Most of the Labour party will shortly go through its Stockholm process with the new hard left/Union administration and go native. Socialists are all about suspending the power of thought and following the dear leader - they will fall into line.
6) Finally the right will realise its needs to defend capitalism rather than just triangulate to fool weak minded voters with tip bits of left wing policies.

Any more ? ( Or will it be Yvette ? )


Jim said...

I'm not sure Corbyn will shore up the overall Labour vote. Yes he'll pull in those who went off to the Greens, and some who were on the far left, but I don't think that his 'anti-austerity, pro-immigration, pro-terrorist' stance will play well with the type of former Labour voters who have gone over to UKIP. UKIP's lure is the anti-immigration thing, its nothing else really, there's a few anti-EU types, a few anti main 3 party types, but the real deal is the change in culture of voters towns due to immigration. Plus he will drive away the middle classes floating voters in marginal seats with his hard left economics and social policies.

The votes that Labour lost to the SNP aren't coming back any time soon either, once you've spurned a party for abandoning you, you aren't coming back in a hurry. Going Left may pull back a few votes in Scotland, but unless Labour support independence there's still not point to voting Labour for a Nat voter - Labour will continue to be painted as a Westminster party by the SNP.

Milliband was going for a 35% strategy and got just over 30%. Corbyn is now aiming for at best 30% and may well end up with 25%.

James Higham said...

He won.

Man in a Shed said...

And politics is rapidly realigning ...