Oldham East and Saddleworth was worse for the Lib Dems than the headline numbers suggest

Firstly congratulations to Debbie Abrahams, (any relation to the Abrahams Labour had so much trouble with on donations a while back ? ), though I think she spoke her first major fib as an elected representative when she said she would keep her promises. Since Labour have a blank bit of paper as their policies right now she can't possibly know that.

But back to the voting. It seems that the Lib Dems haemorrhaged votes to Labour, but that impact was hidden in the headline vote tallies by tactical voting by Conservative supporters whom voted Coalition rather than party.

The evidence for this ? Well at counts the parties get a lot more information that is widely known by the public. Each ward is counted separately, watched by representatives from each party. They know from canvassing returns what the support should be in each ward and can estimate and even count the votes as they come in. There were reports of large numbers of Conservatives votes going to the Lib Dems. Given the national political situation I can't believe that's because loads of traditional Tories have suddenly discovered they like Nick Clegg et al. This effect was reported by Laura Kuenssberg in her tweet last night and here.

What this means is that for the general public the Lib Dems will be able to keep up the front that all is fine, but their more savy activists will know the word on the street is that it ain't so. In a general election they could not rely on this sort of helping hand from the Tories - or perhaps they many conclude its their only chance ? Who knows ? What we do know is this result is far worse for the Lib Dems than the headlines suggest.

David Davis

To say David Davis' forcing a by-election is a shock is an understatement. But he's right. He's putting his future on the line. Its a brave move, perhaps a rash move.

Man in a Shed shares David Davis' disgust at the cynical politicking by the Labour Party to remove ancient English Freedoms just for political advantage of the unelected PM and his cowardice.

Perhaps Brown would like to fight a real election ?

No - thought not.

Ah I can hear Iain Dale just coming on R4 at the moment.

He says he's a shocked as anyone. It shows how deeply he feels about the issue - shows his conviction.

People have underestimated how strongly Davis feels about this.

It makes a dramatic statement. If we really are going to sacrifice out liberties this way it needs and election.

Iain reports that the Lib Dems are saying they won't put a candidate up against him.

Being asked if it some sort of leadership marker for the future. Iain's denying this saying you couldn't get a paper between Cameron and Davis over the last few years - despite what some people feared.

Elsewhere:

The Daily telegraph reports the move, discussing the issue from the perspective of the challenge it provides David Cameron.
Guido's in ! ( Maybe he'll learn to love Basher after all.)
Advice to Labour from a former worker on this here - Hopi Sen.
Looks like Labour don't want to have a fight with Basher - Denis MacShame is suggesting keeping out of it ( as Hopi advised ). Personally I think this plays well for Labour ona number of different levels and is what they are likely to do.
The BBC has a collection a key quotes and reactions here ...
Rachel Joyce consider this a rare matter of principle
The text of David Davis statement is available here.
DD picking up support from Socialist Unity !! - He can be a hero, just for one day

Iain Dale's first considered reaction here
In his own words - David Davis here....

"It's mean and it's nasty and it sums up Gordon Brown."

The headline is a quote from Eric Pickles on Labour's negative campaigning in Crewe and Nantwich. Good on you Eric...

I would have thought that hypocrisy was the last thing Labour needed to pile on top of their heads for Thurs - by they seem to be intent on grabbing a bumper load.

Some results from Rochford - Essex

Before the local election I said that there was something stirring in South-East Essex.

Well the results are in and here a few facts from the Rochford District Council elections:

The Conservatives won everything ( it hasn't always been that way - once the Lib Dems ran the council ! They have now been utterly decimated ).

But look at who the opposition are - who are getting support:

Based on votes cast in contested wards (which probably undervalues Conservative support as they were awarded a few wards as not contested ):
As you can see the English Dems perform on a par with Labour and the Lib Dems - in fact they beat Labour in terms of votes cast and both Labour and the Lib Dems for share of the vote where they contested.

At the same time other minor party activity has sapped votes. ( The picture is very complicated as various permutations of candidate stood in different seats ).

These are good days for the Conservatives, but the English Dems have to be very pleased with an early performance like this.

There is a strong anti-politics mood in the country right now and one day a minor party might ride that wave. Based on UKIP recent performance its not going to be them and we had all better hope its never the BNP (who are taking votes mostly from their fellow left wing authoritarian Labour party - hence the tactics being reported on foreigners being made to carry ID cards by a desperate Labour in the Crewe and Nantwich bye-election).

But the Lib Dems look tired and worn out ( all that facing two ways I suppose ), if PR was brought in to this country the Lib Dems should not assume it is they who would benefit.