Oldham East and Saddleworth was worse for the Lib Dems than the headline numbers suggest

Firstly congratulations to Debbie Abrahams, (any relation to the Abrahams Labour had so much trouble with on donations a while back ? ), though I think she spoke her first major fib as an elected representative when she said she would keep her promises. Since Labour have a blank bit of paper as their policies right now she can't possibly know that.

But back to the voting. It seems that the Lib Dems haemorrhaged votes to Labour, but that impact was hidden in the headline vote tallies by tactical voting by Conservative supporters whom voted Coalition rather than party.

The evidence for this ? Well at counts the parties get a lot more information that is widely known by the public. Each ward is counted separately, watched by representatives from each party. They know from canvassing returns what the support should be in each ward and can estimate and even count the votes as they come in. There were reports of large numbers of Conservatives votes going to the Lib Dems. Given the national political situation I can't believe that's because loads of traditional Tories have suddenly discovered they like Nick Clegg et al. This effect was reported by Laura Kuenssberg in her tweet last night and here.

What this means is that for the general public the Lib Dems will be able to keep up the front that all is fine, but their more savy activists will know the word on the street is that it ain't so. In a general election they could not rely on this sort of helping hand from the Tories - or perhaps they many conclude its their only chance ? Who knows ? What we do know is this result is far worse for the Lib Dems than the headlines suggest.

Lib Dem leaflets - why do they do it ?

Yet another Lib Dem leaflet has dropped through my door. Now I'm not one of those people who moves it straight to the recycling - as delivering leaflets myself and realise the effort and time that's gone into putting them out.

I only know one or two Lib Dems, but those I do see themselves as moral people who I'm fairly sure wouldn't lie, mislead or spin and smear in any other walk of life.

Why do they behave like they do at election time ?

My leaflet before me claims that Surrey County council spends too much money, but in the next box goes on about the terrible - yet unspecified cuts - that will be made to bus services soon.

The Lib Dems get a lot of support from people employed in the public services around here, yet the leaflet complains about Surrey CC employing more office staff. Why stop there - why not offer to reduce the number of office staff ? ( I think we can spot the conflict of interest here ).

The leaflet claims that Lib Dems voted against the budget and tries to imply they would have spent less - but is that really honest ?

It appears Surrey Lib Dems ( so perhaps the Woking chapter is just "following orders" ) have decided to use a poor review (and it was the first one) of children's services - which due to the crazy way reviews of council services work means that the lowest score is use to brand the council, rather than an average. It helps central government control local government, but it doesn't make Surrey the worse council in the UK. As if this form of misrepresentation wasn't bad enough the Lib Dems went and tried to create the impression that everyone's outraged with their usual tactics of quotes and use of the left wing media ( they're not - satisfaction with Surrey CC is one of the highest in the country ). I would be ashamed to be associated with such tactics, and so should Lib Dem party members.

Just for the record here is the Audit Commissions summary for Surrey CC 1 Jan 09:

Surrey County Council is 'performing well', according to a new report released today (22 July) by the Audit Commission. The Commission's corporate assessment inspection team found that the Council works well with its partners in the Surrey Strategic Partnership and has developed a clear vision based on a good understanding of the needs of residents.

Also note point 7 from that reports Executive summary:

Political and managerial leadership is strong. Councillors and officers are clear about their roles and responsibilities although a more structured approach to councillor development would promote a better understanding of their statutory responsibilities such as corporate parenting. The Council's Constitution, codes of conduct and protocols for staff and councillors support constructive and positive working relationships, based on mutual respect and trust. These arrangements help councillors take responsibility for strategic and policy matters, allowing officers to focus on operational delivery. This promotes transparency and helps create an open and supportive culture.

So you have to ask yourself what trick are the Lib Dems trying to pull ? Full report here.

Compare with the actual result for the last general election : Woking 2005

TOP THREE PARTIES AT A GLANCE
Conservative		47.4%
Liberal Democrat		33.1%
Labour		16.3%

And of course there's the dodgy bar chart based on whatever result the Lib Dems find puts their message across ( regardless of if it compares like for like polls - the one this time is for the parliamentary constituency, no doubt trying to push their candidate, but used local election results. At the general election the gap was 14% not 4% ) and the call the squeeze the Labour vote. But then the proponents of PR fail to mention that in the European elections PR is being used. Vote Labour - get Labour MEP ( it beyond me why you would want to - but its the likely effect of voting for them ).


Its all good tactics if you believe in winning at any cost and without any principles - but why do you do it Lib Dems ? Those of you I meet are normal people who certainly seem honest in their dealings other than politics.

I almost commented on Norfolk Blogger's post on the importance of leaflets for Lib Dem campaigns, but I'm guessing just before an election isn't a good time for cool considered debate.

But I have to tell you Lib Dems there's something rotten at the heart of your party which places integrity as such a low priority, and winning at all cost so high.

Update: The inevitable leaflet slip up has been made by the Lib Dems in Cornwall ( lets face it any party can make this mistake with activists with their blood up ).