Monday, May 10, 2010

My prediction - the next general election will be the end of July

The rainbow coalition deal is really a non starter. The fact we are even thinking about it is more a product of the fact Nick Clegg doesn't command the support of his MPs and party than any form of logic.

My guess is that we are still heading for minority Conservative government. It will present a budget in the first 50 days which it will fail to get through Parliament, as Nick Clegg won't be able to control his weirdie beardie wing.

And a new general election will be called.

Expect to be back at the polling station around then end of July. As the Lib Dems are incapable of delivering stable government or government of any sort.


JohnRS said...

If CallMeDave had the sense of a brain dead house brick he'll use the current EU/Greek crisis and the bail-out payments we've just been stiched up for to reinstate his EU referendum (an in/out one this time) so he can capture the UKIP votes that cost him 20 seats last time around....but he wont.

TheFatBigot said...

I'm not so sure the budget would fail. The IRA won't take their seats, the Orangeists will vote with the Conservatives and a dozen or so pro-votes or abstentions from the yellow peril will be enough.

If Clegg has any sense he will whip an abstention rather than find he is blamed for forcing another election after failing to agree a deal with either main party.

The Lib Dem's main strength is that they have never been to blame for anything. Bringing down a minority government when they had the chance to be King maker will put them in the firing line. They'd be very foolish to do it now, although it might work in six, twelve or eighteen months' time.

Man in a Shed said...

@TFB You may well be right. The left's plan will be for the Tories to take the blame for the necessary austerity and then have an election to punish us.