Friday, March 25, 2011

Blue skies darkening

Yesterday there was a video report from the BBC on the US Navy's USS Bataan tooling up and getting ready to spend a year in the Med.

As I probably mentioned before my father was in the RAF and was cross posted tot he US. His comment was the the US airforce saw WW3 as happening in the middle east as a 'blue sky war', not over the north German plain.

And how right they mostly were: Gulf wars I & II, Lebanon, Gaza, Libya ( ok with the Balkans trying to get a bit of attention also ).

Now we have signs of deep instability in Syria, Bahrain & Yemen. The odd rumble in Oman & Jordan, and the ongoing regime change in Tunisia & Egypt.

In and near Israel terrorist activity is up from bus bombs to random anti-civilian rocket attacks - with their corresponding counter battery fire from Israel. ( Don't judge too quickly - if you lived in that neighbourhood you'd understand why signs of weakness are fatal ).

The Saudi's and just about everyone else who has supplies of cash, are busy bribing their population.

And after what one Tunisian fruit seller has achieved its easy to understand why they are a little nervous.

But let no one tell you this is a surprise ( though they will ).

Let no one tell you this is caused by twitter & facebook ( as opposed to facilitated on a few occasions ).

The famous Tunisian fruit seller light the fuse on the powder keg, and that moment may have been a surprise, but the construction of that powder keg has been obvious for over twenty years.

The West, and especially the US, has seen this coming for a long time. Yes the short term execution of diplomatic moves may have been shambolic ( yes Mr Barrack Hussain Obama I mean you ), but there have been plenty of hand waving articles about exploding populations, without prospect of work being supported by unsustainable oil wealth and infiltrated by religious ideologies that are most closely related to fascism.

This is why the US will be moving larger assets into the area. They have always know this could happen.

The US also has to consider that Iran and North Korea may try to use any over stretch for mischief. Maybe even China against Taiwan. ( This may be the more charitable explanation of US reluctance to carry on leading on Libya - normally the US hates leaving its forces under any non-American command. )

Most of any fighting will be under blue skies, but the scope may yet be global.

We live in the most dangerous times since d├ętente and latter perestroika. Those blue skies over Arabia and the Maghreb are darkening fast and its mostly the US that stands in the way of that darkness.


Antisthenes said...

Not a good time to have an idiot socialist sitting in the oval office.

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