A hard nosed view

Over two decades ago I was being trained as a recent graduate in a large integrated oil company. After weeks of technical lecturing and exercises came a brief few days when the wider issues of the company were introduced.

I, along with the other graduates, learned that the company brand was a key asset and also how the company did its long term planning for the future - a technique called scenarios ( if your in the now you'll now recognise which company I'm referring to ).

There were two key world views used a scenarios - one that the world would come together to save the planet with environmentalism being the key factor with nations cooperating for the greater good (option A - sustainable world ) and the other essentially saying making money and trade between regional blocks would dominate (option B - global mercantilism ).

The guys based in Europe and America most, the chemicals and refinery groups, thought the world would go green. The exploration and production guys - who had actually meet the world and had to deal with them - though option B was on the cards, on a good day.

Why do I mention this ? Well hearing all the enthusiasm the BBC/Guardian types are getting for revolutions for democracy in the middle east I start to wonder if they've done business there. Do they know how the people think and what cultural influence predominate ?

More experienced people know things are about to turn potentially very ugly, and they should be listened to. The wet liberals will lose interest in their new twitter revolution playthings within a week (just ask the marsh Arabs), what follows may be in place for 50 years and it is more likely than not it will be worse than what it replaces.

Update: Of course some in the MSM are getting a nasty education in the realities of the region.