Saturday, June 27, 2009

Swine flue looks like its about to take off in the UK

I was looking at the reasonably good Fergus on Flu blog on the BBC, specifically this post which show the escalation of cases in different countries.

It occurs to me that the UK is seeing the sharpest rise, with an accelerated exponential like increase.

Having looked at some of the epidemic escalation profiles this looks ominously like the start of the first big wave of the outbreak.

Perhaps the heat wave etc will knock it back, but I'm not so sure.

I wonder why the UK has such a sharp rise in cases now - compared to other countries ?

More lessons to be learnt perhaps.... lets all hope it continues to be mostly an inconvenience.

1 comment:

James Higham said...

Much comes down to density of population and hygiene, hence London.