Saturday, April 25, 2009

Good and bad news on swine flu

Reuters has reported that the US Centre for Disease Control now thinks that Swine flu cannot be contained. If it can't be contained there, then global spread must be the most likely outcome.

The good news is that the impact of the disease in the US seems to be far milder than in Mexico. ( Update Looking at the figures I'm now not so sure this is the case. US cases are relatively small and getting high grade medical care. Mortality between 0.5 and 2% is expected for Flu Pandemic - given the number of cases the absence of out of Mexico deaths could just be chance ).

This is one to watch.

Its something the UK Govt is likely to grasp like a drowning man, allow Brown to pose and convene COBRA whilst sounding solemn.

If the UK did want to try to prevent spread here then action is due now. Though from what I've seen of flu outbreak simulations on documentaries its unlikely to be effective.

Update: The Guardian is reporting a member of a BA crew from Mexico city is under observation for flu like symptoms. We all have reason to wish him well and hope its just normal flu. [ Further it turns out he's OK, but there are other suspect cases now in Scotland. ]

Further From NY Times
MEXICO CITY —President Felipe Calderón published an order Saturday that would give his government extraordinary powers to address a deadly flu epidemic, including isolating those affected by the rare virus, inspecting their homes and ordering the closure of any public events that might result in more infection.

23:46 25/4/09 I guess there is tremendous potential for rumour and damaging panic here. However some of the reports from Mexico city are mixed. The BBC has a comment ( unsubstantiated as far as I can tell ) from some saying things are far worse than is being widely reported.

Perhaps a common sense statement and sense of perspective is provided here by Dr Marc Siegel on Fox News' site.

4 comments:

Gallimaufry said...

Have we enough oinkment to treat it?

Man in a Shed said...

Very good.

I knew someone in a medical part of the civil service who told me they have supplies for key civil servants etc...

Interestingly when you search around a little other rumours appear.

I wonder if this might be the explanation for the fantasy budget.

There was a rumour that the MOD was busy buying up riot gear and the military being asked about their willingness to fire on civilians. I wonder what the Govt knows ?

tally said...

can you get it from alpacas? I was near one last week and actually patted it before it spat at me and now i've got the flu, should I be worried?

Christine said...

Found this article you might be interested in reading:

http://www.red-alerts.com/homeland-security/swine-flu-outbreak-how-bad-could-it-be/