Thursday, May 01, 2008

Local elections - my guess and a hope for candour

I don't really have much information to go on this year, as I haven't been out canvassing.

I am however quite sick of the game of expectation reduction that is played by all parties. The worst are always the BBC which normally starts the night with a predicted figure below which the leader of the Conservative party should get out his pearl handled revolver if he doesn't achieve it - then they forget all about their target and spend their time berating Conservative party representatives for not doing better than they did (come see the liberal/leftwing bias inherent in the system ).

I don't know why politicians keep lying about the facts as they appear in front of them, with the notable exception of Michael Portillo in 97. There are no votes to be gained once the polls close - and much grudging respect to be earn't be a bit of candour. If only ....

Anyway here my guess - based on nothing scientific:

    Conservative +175
    Labour -160
    Lib Dem -25
    Other +10

But with Ken Livingston holding on in London - but only just. (All those Lib Dem voters read the Guardian and Independent you know). Boris is an unproven quantity - maybe he's do well as Mayor - but it would depend on having good people around him (not impossible), so I hope I'm wrong here.

This will be written as Brown weathering the storm etc and will provide a head ache for the Conservatives.

It is equally a very good result for the Conservatives as it will keep Gordon Brown in power and the English public are really starting to hate him with avengence. Labour are toast at the next general election if he's still their leader.


Daily Referendum said...

It's funny, I want Labour to be hammered tonight and I want Boris to win. I would like to see Brown kicked out on his arse, but like you say, it would be better for conservatives if he stayed.

Man in a Shed said...

Well its looking like your getting your wish at this time of night 12:32 ...

I'm waiting to see what happens in Woking. We had a zero council tax rise ( a real terms cut ), but parking charges went up. I understand the local Lib Dems have been saying some outrageous things - but I haven't seen any of their election literature myself.

Man in a Shed said...

OK Hat eating time - I was way under with this prediction ! ( Happily )