Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Back to Suez

So what to make of the latest Anglo-French defence treaty ?

Apart from the obvious stuff about cost cutting and aircraftless carriers it seems to me there is one clear message, and its one that isn't hitting the media just yet.

That message is that the strategic thinkers in French and UK govt have looked into the crystal ball and seen a possible world where the US can't be relied upon.

The key part of what's going on is the close cooperation on Nuclear issues. This is in part providing an alternative to the more dependent nuclear relationships both the UK and also more secretly France have with the US.

The US has slowly manoeuvred the UK into complete dependence on US technology - not that we haven't happily gone along with it. But now something about the US must be worrying our masters.

Is it a US in decline ? A US preoccupied with the challenge of China, competing for influence in Latin America and Asia with no time for old Europe ?

Maybe even the US has signalled this. Some in the US have studied the decline of the British Empire and have been impressed by the strategic decisions the UK took to reduce its sphere of influence to hold onto the rest ( specifically getting out of South America ). Maybe this is the future for a over stretched US.

Either way its a potent of things to come.

Suez II is now ready for production, only this time the US may be leaving us to our own devices.

Update: See this on US decline and how the UK may already be reacting to it.


mexicano said...

... or, the much more likely reason - Cameron wholeheartedly supports the EU and wants us to be a part of a pan-European defence force.

Your efforts at rationalising our Dave´s behaviour are getting increasingly desperate. Isn´t it time you admit you backed the wrong horse this time?

Man in a Shed said...

I don't dismiss other motives, and I think the aircraft carrier decisions support in part your analysis.

However the nuclear ones are also a sign of reversing an ever increasing dependence on the US.

That's the point I haven't heard other commentators address and I'd like to raise.

Of course this is a triumph for French foreign policy who are getting what they always wanted. The question I'm asking is "Is this Realpolitik by UKG based on a strategic view of US decline ?".