If you aren't hedging against the supply chain - you should be.

There a debate going on about people filling up their cars and jerry cans before the next attempt by the Unions at mass blackmail gets going.

Some say government suggesting people stock up is irresponsible as it may create a shortage, others see that moving fuel as far along the supply chain before that chain is cut is just a sensible precaution.

But really everyone should have a jerry can - and probably water / food for at least a week ( even if its stuff you wouldn't want to live of normally ).

We live in a world of optimised supply chain. Stocks of food, fuel and other essentials are vastly lower than they ever were, as it saves money invested in stock to do so. Does anyone really think the government could feed a large city for any length of time at all in the event of  major catastrophe ( see the unannounced asteroids that keep flying past us if you want an indication of a black swan type event that you know our incompetent government couldn't handle ).

What's the cost of a large bag of rice and a load of water bottles ? Near to nothing. But their value when you need them will be vast.

Surely its a hedge everyone should make.

PS I remember when I grew up amongst the crippling strikes of the late 70's family having cupboards full of flower, sugar and the like ready for the next strike. Chest freezers were popular amongst a population that could still remember rationing and knew that the war being waged against the state and public by left wing extremist unions could cut of supplies at any time. These days the memory has faded and it makes our society very vulnerable.

Brown's fuel crisis

The government has failed to learn the lessons of the fuel protests.

With forewarning of the current situation it should have done the following:

1) Mandated that filling stations raise the stocks they hold to near full (commercially they try to run on minimum stokes with just in time delivery to reduce inventories and the associated costs). The impact of this would be to avoid the panic of petrol stations running dry. It is also an obvious place to store petrol and diesel before any known interruption. The government should retain for itself powers to force petrol distributors and petrol stations to comply in times of emergency. In compensation it should allow for a temporary reduction in tax which the fuel distributors and sales points could be compensated for their being forced to buy greater stocks.

2) As soon as a 'run' on petrol stocks becomes evident and is threatening to make stations run dry they should enforce a maximum fuel purchase quantity - eg £15 / customer. ( This will reduce panic as everyone knows the rate of fuel depletion is limited. If necessary opening hours of fuel stations should be restricted to ensure effective rationing.

3) Strikes should be banned in critical parts of our infrastructure, and contingency plans for a major incident should be drawn up.

4) Unfortunatelty the current Grangemouth incident has drawn attention to obvious choke points in our fuel and energy supplies. Defensive arrangements will now need to be made. This was worried about a lot when the North Sea came into production, however the lack of threats has made us lax. This needs to be put right as a matter of urgency. The consequences of major incidents need to be properly, and realistically - that means professional engineering input not just emergency services and civil servants- planned for.

Also it really is no good asking people to be calm and not to panic buy. As most people realise that just means those who are suckered by the government advice will have empty tanks - as its a clear example of the tragedy of the commons.