False dawn I'm afraid

I don't know about you, but I detect a growing sense of optimism in the country. A feeling that the worse may be behind us. All the pundits say Greece will collapse again and need another bail out - Portugal is on the edge - the state is too big and the pension reforms ineffective.

Yes China looks financially a little wobbly, but suggestions are the stock market will rise - and gold is falling.

And yet you can't help the sunny feeling.

With the Queens jubilee and the Olympics coming it will only get more sunny.

In short its spring - and George is about to deliver his budget.

The papers say he may have more money to spend than expected ( if it isn't on tax cuts then his blowing it - but that's another story ).

But the fundamentals are still bad. The state too big, the people to unproductive ( sorry I don't mean we don't all work hard enough - we do - but millions don't and yet more are hampered by working in the wrong way or uselessly in the parasitic sector. )

Look at that debt clock top right - its still going up ....

... and the sands are still running out.

PS What would I like the budget ?

1. 50p tax rate abolished.
2. Reduction in corporation tax.
3.  Faster reduction in the deficit.
4. A proper acknowledgement of our real liabilities in the future.

Getting the Tory pain in first

Over the last few weeks we've had plenty of noise about the defence review and cuts that are to come. This makes Conservatives very nervous, after all we are the party that traditionally support a strong national defence. ( Yes you can find New Labour triangulation guff saying something else - but their deeds on helicopters and funding show otherwise. )

Now we have the abolition of child support for much of the middle classes - which will dominate the media today as journalists compete with each other to find the starkest example of that journalistic gold "the loser". Odds are the big losers will be Tory voters.

So what's up ?

I suspect this is a deliberate policy so when the rest of the inevitable cuts come middle England will say we've suffered too, and their hearts will bleed a little less as the realisation that Labour really have run the country into the ground finally takes hold.

Further: Peter Oborne making some similar point in the Telegraph 15 Oct 2010 here.

Even the Mole: has finally caught on. Of course the tactics mentioned above have largely succeeded and the time for the left to counter was a few weeks ago. Now the impending roar of the reduction in spending to pay for Labour financial disaster will drown out all analysis as we wait for the wave to hit on Wednesday.