Perhaps the latest Conservative supporter poll is correct on Rochester and Stood, but I have strong reasons to question it.
1) This is part if the narrative the Conservatives have been trying to get rolling for a week now. That is UKIP support dipping - and of course going to them. When you see simultaneous articles appearing from multiple outlets with the same message its narrative broadcasting rather than polling. ( The dirty trick from a few days ago of misrepresenting which are UKIP target seats to sell the Conservative narrative is just the most recent but this one example. )
2) Even if the Conservatives win, they are no closer to power. With the current politics UKIP would only be likely to support a Conservative administration - in exchange for it delivering on its promise of a referendum on the EU + a guarantee it was fair and not stiched up. UNLESS of course the Conservatives don't really plan on forgoing that promise ( is it Cast Iron ) - in which case their warring resources on UKIP makes sense, but UKIP is shown t to have been right all along.
3) The reception I received there recently suggests to me very strong support not just for UKIP, but for Mark Reckless personally.
I guess we will see....