Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Black swans for 2010

I see that many other bloggers are doing their predictions for next year. I thought I'd add a few, of the high impact, but expected low probability type for next year.

  1. The Liberal Democrats will split back into a Liberal half ( southern England) and a social democrat half ( with New Labour defectors ).
  2. A key US politician will be found to have been working in the interests of a foreign and antagonistic power/movement.
  3. The BBC will be split up and disbanded ( ok this is wishful thinking on my part ).
  4. The European Union will replace a national government as the legal authority in at least one member state.
  5. China will start export restrictions on key technology and materials to the west until Taiwan is "returned".
  6. A major issue relating to the solar system / local galaxy will turn out to have been the driver behind governments interests in global warming. This secret will have been known about and suspected for 10 years, but have been confirmed by recent re-tasking of the two extra-solar system voyager and the Cassini space mission at Saturn.
  7. Tony Blair will have major heart surgery in the US, but have to stay there after a European arrest warrant is issued for war crimes.
There you go those are my tin foil hat predictions. Not that I think they are likely - but I do think they are left field and high impact ( which are just the sort of things making preparations for makes sense for opportunists ).

4 comments:

Dick Puddlecote said...

1) is a definite 'yes please' here. The Lib bit is the party we could all actually do with. The Soc Dem is the fat that should be trimmed away and chucked in the bin.

3) & 7) would be nice.

4) Entirely believeable and almost inevitable from one of the net beneficiaries in the next decade.

6) Well, they've got to come up with something else we can't see through soon.

As stabs in the dark, these are very good. :-)

Clive said...

2 is quite probable if he runs out of legal gambits to keep hiding his birth certificate.

Praguetory said...

Making predictable predictions is never as much fun. I think that the only thing that could precipitate a Lib Dem split is if they coalesced with one of the Tories - and in that event a split is fairly likely.

aljahom said...

Looks like #5 has just happened...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/concern-as-china-clamps-down-on-rare-earth-exports-1855387.html