Friday, May 23, 2008

What does it mean for the Conservatives ?

The meaning of the Crewe and Nantwich by-election is very clear for Labour MPs, Labour spAds and researchers - get rid of Gordon Brown or get yourself a new job.

But what does it mean for the Conservatives ? I've twice heard Labour spokespeople say that the increased turnout in Nantwich and the rural areas won it. Now they are trying to avoid the even more painful explanation that their voters have switched ( why can't they admit that - I guess they are afraid of it becoming a national trend. They rely on tribal loyalty and their client areas of deprivation and despair to give them their well paid jobs ).

But what if there is some truth in what they have said - after all the ward results will be known to some level of detail by both parties if only through their canvassing operations ?

Norman Tebbit has in the past made a point of emphasising the lowering turn out at elections, and pointed out that Labour has won on smaller and smaller shows of support. What if the Conservative party has found a way to energise potential voters who previously stayed at home ? If that's the case then the Conservative party could win and win big almost despite whatever Labour does.

Maybe its not the swing voters that will determine the results by the disaffected returning to vote.

If so it has implications for strategy - especially in an economic down turn.


Letters From A Tory said...

What increased turnout? It was 60% at the last general election and only 58% yesterday.

Man in a Shed said...

I'm working on the assumption that the Labour comments have an element of truth.

I assume turnout is down in Labour wards and up in Conservative ones.

This would be significant as it does mean we are chasing swing voters, but disaffected voters.

I guess only the parties in Crewe and Nantwich have the figures on the ground. They would be intretsing to see.

Rachel Joyce said...

I think one thing we have done is to decontaminate the Conservative brand so much that people who would never have contemplated voting for us will do so now -
I meet so many people on the doorstep who say exactly that.

Man in a Shed said...

_ correction _ should have been

This would be significant as it does mean we are not just chasing swing voters, but disaffected voters.

Man in a Shed said...


On last night's showing you had best get ready for a change in occupation!

David Cameron has been controversial in areas that had strong links with David Davis (Woking was one), but I think the wisdom of his approach is now becoming obvious.

We, under his leadership, have earned the right to be listened to again.