Monday, September 04, 2006

Book your seats/ dig your shelter for Gulf War 4

Just how does anyone think Israel is going to put up with a Nuclear armed Iran under its current head banging leadership ?

The failure of a conclusive end to the Hezbollah Lebanon war means that less than entirely sane Iranian Leader has now really got his tail up ( Check this from the Washington Post).

The Israelis are now rumoured to be planning for the rematch - or so The Times reports.

All those who clamoured for a ceasefire may soon have to (re)learn at what cost appeasement is bought.

My guess at the US/Israeli time table is as follows:

1) Diplomacy up the US mid term elections.
2) Rapid heating up of the pressure on Iran just afterwards. Large tankers of aviation fuel start to head to US bases.
3) War - in time to be over for the next US presidential election.

Maybe this is why the French were so reluctant to put their troops in harms way in Lebanon. (They are not cowards - just see the stuff they get involved in with Africa - or for that matter stupid.)

Of course the problem with all this is that Iran is a modern country with some competent military people and strategic thinkers. They can work this out and will try to disrupt the timetable. The question is how ? I doubt we are going to like it very much.

On the bright side making money on oil derivatives is going to be easy. You just may not be around to spend it.

PS Guess where Armageddon is ?

Tags Armageddon Gulf+War+4 The+Times

2 comments:

C4' said...

It would actually be Gulf War 4.

The first Gulf War was between Iraq and Iran in the 1980s.

Man in a shed said...

I stand corrected - will update from 3-4.