Saturday, July 29, 2006

Doubts about Israeli strategy are emerging in Israel

Robert Fox has a good article in the First Post today .... but perhaps better to also read the article he's quoting in Haaretz ( an Israeli paper).

Real concern is growing about the effectiveness of Hezbollah and the failure of the IDF to deal with them.

This is likely to have far reaching implications if no change in strategy results. Israel is going to feel very vulnerable to asymmetric warfare from failed states ( ie South Lebanon and the Gaza strip ). It makes pull out from the West Bank very unlikely.

And as everyone keeps reminding everyone else the Arab/Israeli conflict is at the root of a lot of the trouble in the middle east.

Does this make the hoped for cease fire more likely or less ? I'm not sure. But the situation is fluid and very dangerous.


PS I copy an small extract from Ze'ev Schiff's article on Israeli and Hezbollah approaches to Lebanese civilians. Neither looks humane to me.

"First, villagers were instructed to leave when the IDF wanted to destroy bunkers or missiles or carry out other operations in a particular village. This policy was morally correct, because it was aimed at reducing casualties among Lebanese civilians, even if they cooperated with Hezbollah.

Then, this policy expanded. The military difficulty involved in preventing the launching of short-range missiles gave rise to the idea of encouraging large numbers of civilians to flee northward, toward Beirut, to serve as a source of pressure. The problem was that in many places, the roads were impassable, because the Israel Air Force had bombed a large number of bridges to keep Hezbollah from transporting missiles and reinforcements.

Hezbollah, for its part, is trying to prevent a massive flight to the north, using roadblocks and other measures."

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